Did you miss out on the Bitcoin Bandwagon? Own some but want to know if you should sell them or wait? I reached out to 10 Bitcoin experts for their informed predictions about Bitcoin over the next 5 years. The following is what they shared with me.
Brad Garlinghouse, CEO, Ripple
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Why I Know More About Bitcoin than Your High School Buddy:
Brad Garlinghouse is the CEO of Ripple and a member of the Board of Directors. Prior to Ripple, Brad served as the CEO of file collaboration service Hightail. Previously, he was President of Consumer Applications at AOL from 2009 to 2012 and held various positions at Yahoo! from 2003 to 2009, including Senior Vice President. Brad formerly served as CEO of Dialpad Communications, held management positions at SBC Communications and @Home Network and was an advisor to Silverlake Partners. He currently serves on the Board of Directors of Animoto and OutMatch and has held board positions at Ancestry.com and Tonic Health.
Here’s the Inside Scoop: 2017 has been filled with ups and downs in the cryptocurrency industry — from ICOs to forks to pricing volatility. Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, has some bold predictions for what’s next for the industry in 2018:
Bitcoin and Ethereum will see new challengers. Everyone knows Bitcoin and Ethereum, but other cryptocurrencies that have real use cases and increased adoption will challenge the status quo.
RSS.Bitcoin Daily Bitcoin videos twitter Coins without use cases will scramble to find them. CryptoKitties is just the beginning of what will be a series of ridiculous attempts to find a use case for coins that never had a purpose to begin with.
Investors will have FOMO. As crypto market caps continue to reach record highs, we’ll see investors jump ship from traditional VC funding to focus entirely on crypto funds.
One blockchain won’t rule them all. Blockchain and crypto projects that don’t embrace interoperability will fall to the wayside. The ICO bubble will burst. Regulators are already cracking down on ICOs, but next year we are going to see people go to jail and community backlash as the majority of ICO projects fail to deliver on their promises (like the laser razor you backed on Kickstarter — it’s not going to happen).
Peter Vessenes, Managing Director of New Alchemy, Co-founder of the Bitcoin Foundation
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Why I Know More About Bitcoin than Your High School Buddy:
Peter Vessenes has deep roots in Bitcoin, tokenization, and blockchain technology. He founded the first venture-backed Bitcoin company, co-founded the Bitcoin Foundation, founded the first company to deliver 65nm Bitcoin mining chips at scale, and holds the fundamental patent for deanonymizing Bitcoin transactions. He was also the first to suggest pooled Bitcoin mining, and the first to publicize the security risks that ultimately took down The DAO. He holds a degree in theoretical mathematics from Brown University.
Here’s the Inside Scoop:
I believe tokenization will become more relevant and widely used than bitcoin in the next five years. I was drawn to blockchain technology, particularly the idea of tokenization, because I knew it was going to be a groundbreaking development that would have the potential to disrupt industries and the overall economy. I knew it had the potential to be the largest technological shift of this decade. I was intrigued and excited by tokenization’s ability to democratize commerce and finance. I started New Alchemy as a way to further explore the possibilities of tokenization and to aid innovative startups in launching their tokens to best disrupt their industries and bring about the changes needed for the economy to become more inclusive and efficient.
Timothy Tam, Co-Founder, CoinFi
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Why I Know What I’m Talking About:
Tim started his career as an analyst in Goldman Sachs working on statistical arbitrage and algorithmic trading. He then moved to Asia working as a Senior Trader at two hedge funds Nezu Asia and Segantii Capital in Asia, each with over $1.5 billion USD of assets under management.
Over his career he has traded equities, foreign exchange, equity derivatives and convertible bonds in the US and over 10 Asian countries. He has managed daily trading exposure of up to $1 billion at peak and was intimately involved in managing risk during the 2008 global financial crisis trading the highly volatile markets and the unwinding of risk.He then moved to co-founding a hedge fund and was involved in raising $20 million in assets in its first year.
Tim is now the co-founder of CoinFi, the cryptocurrency market intelligence platform with hedge fund-caliber trading tools for real-time news, data, and analysis on the crypto markets.
Here’s The Inside Scoop:
“Compared to the kind of tools and on-demand financial analysis to which equities traders have access, the cryptocurrency market is drastically underserved. As cryptocurrency heads mainstream — and don’t kid yourself, it absolutely is going mainstream with the recent rollout of futures trading and talk of government regulation — look for an entire industry to spawn around tracking and analyzing the crypto markets. Now that traditional and experienced Wall Street investment bankers are dabbling in crypto, an arsenal of advanced tools, algorithms and products, including derivatives, is probable.
But with a surging market comes a dark side. Over the next five years, expect to see cases of fraud arise that aren’t necessarily new to Wall Street but certainly new to the crypto market. Pump and dump schemes and false “flash crashes” will be common until the government is able to sniff out the culprits.”
Sara Rose, Founder, Dmanna
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Why I Know More about Crypto Than That Guy You Just Met on Facebook:
Sara Rose Harcus is a former chemist, current Cryptocurrency trader, and perpetual entrepreneur who eats spreadsheets for breakfast. Her data-driven articles have been cited by publications such as CNN Money, Fortune, and BusinessInsider. She is currently endeavoring to reduce the rate of annual Urinary Tract Infections globally by half, through her company Dmanna, whose goal is to minimize UTI occurrences currently affecting 150 million people each year.
Here’s the Inside Scoop:
Bitcoin, and the blockchain technology it is built on, has the potential to change the world. Like many movements that aspire to this, it won’t get there without encountering its fair share of skeptics, naysayers, and dated economists who think to liken Bitcoin to the Tulip bubble. Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies like it, are not a Tulip bubble. People said the similar things about the Internet.
It’s a currency that can’t be counterfeited, stolen, or traced. Transactions are instant and secure. It would be foolish to think there’s not a place for this technology in our everyday lives. We just haven’t realized it yet. But Disney has, with their implementation of what is now Dragonchain. And finance has too, with Nasdaq Inc. chomping at the bit to launch Bitcoin futures. Almost every bank is implementing blockchain technology. Goldman Sachs invested over $100 million in it. The country of Tunisia’s national currency is built on blockchain.
It won’t be long before we’re using Bitcoin to buy through online payment processors like PayPal. By 2023 you’ll be able to purchase gas at the convenience store with your bitcoins. Maybe in 2027 the naysayers will subside. Bitcoin will be worth over $100k per coin by the time that happens.
Until then, HODL.
Kristoffer Nelson
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Why I Know What I’m Talking About:
Kristoffer Nelson is COO of SRAX (www.srax.com) and founding member of its initiative BIGtoken (www.bigtoken.com). He has diverse professional experience in operations and sales in the media and technology industry. Kristoffer has a passion for developing teams, products, partnerships, and awe-inspiring customer experiences. Previously, he worked as Director of Training for Connexion Technologies, Lead Consultant & Project Manager for Living Full Blast Inc. and Pacific Integral. As COO at SRAX, Kristoffer’s creative thinking and problem solving has helped the company grow its team, sales, and products.
Here is the Inside Scoop:
Many compare this to the rise of the internet and web. Late last month (November 2017), Bitcoin hit $10,000. Similarly, in November, 1995, another new and small start up skyrocketed after going public in August. Netscape went public on August 9, 1995 with a price of $28.00. Before the day closed, the price went to $74.75, and closed at $58.25. Netscape broke $100 in November and went on to skyrocket to $174 by the end of the year. This catapulted the Nasdaq and drove massive economic gain for five years.
Bitcoin hitting $10,000 was our Netscape moment. Adam Lashinksy said, “Netscape mesmerized investors and captured America’s imagination. More than any other company, it set the technological, social, and financial tone of the Internet age.” Bitcoin is capturing imagination and driving enthusiasm.
In 2000, the dot com bubble burst and it took years for the Nasdaq to recover. However, we were left with Amazon, Google, AOL, MSN, Yahoo, and many of the building blocks that make up our world today. The Nasdaq again is reaching new highs and breaking new records.
Blockchain and crypto is in it’s infancy. We’re driving up the hype cycle. The bubble will likely burst. But what will come of that is the value human enthusiasm creates.
In addition, ICOs have replaced a large portion of early stage investment vehicles for tech and ecommerce businesses. Deal flow has had a massive slow down for early stage firms, which will need to shift to later stage investments to survive. At the same, the size of ICOs is typically, at least, 5 to 10 times that of early stage investments, for the need for later stage capital has lessened. But the street goes both ways. Given the capital opportunities with ICOs, which require blockchain and token tech, there will be an overall shift to blockchain and token friendly businesses.
Investment vehicles for cryptocurrencies and crypto derivatives will be available for traditional banks and retail investment firms. This will move a lot of capital into crypto while challenging traditional investment vehicles.
James Song, CEO, ExsulCoin
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Why I Know What I’m Talking About:
James Song is the founder and CEO of ExsulCoin, a blockchain technology startup focused on solving the global refugee crisis. He is also the creator of Jezuba, an AI-driven blockchain app delivering free basic education that is currently being tested at the Kutupalong Rohingya Refugee Camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh.
Previously, James managed the investment portfolio at Faircap Partners, a Myanmar private equity firm, where he currently remains as a senior advisor. He is also the founder of Faircap Angels — Myanmar’s first angel investment group. Prior to his work in Myanmar, James was a principal at Fury Capital, an event-driven special-situations hedge fund, where he applied his extensive analytical skills to uncover deep-value inefficiencies in U.S. securities.
James graduated salutatorian from Harvard University, and received an MSc in neuroscience from University College London. His extraordinary accomplishments and proven track record have been recognized by the World Economic Forum, which recently named him a Young Global Leader.
Here is the Inside Scoop:
Bitcoin will be replaced by another, more useful technology over the next five years. Before that happens, in the shorter term, banks will get increasingly involved with bitcoin, and create financial products around them. One of these products will be some type of insurance product that protects traders against losses. Bitcoin’s price will keep going up, maybe to $1,000,000, and banks will make a lot of money selling this insurance product, since they can continue collecting premiums on an asset that seemingly won’t stop rising.
They’ll bundle these insurance products into other derivatives and then make money selling those, too. And then, one day, when no one expects it, bitcoin’s price will rise a bit too high, and no one will want to buy it anymore. No one has ever seen a cryptocurrency panic, and this will be the first. People will lose everything: entire retirement accounts will vanish overnight; bitcoin billionaires will become bitcoin street beggars.
Banks that sold insurance products against bitcoin losses will be forced to declare bankruptcy, but will not go bankrupt. Instead, they’ll off-load the “bad debt” into a structured product, then give all the people they owe money to “shares” of that product. Banks will survive. People will be angry. A state of emergency will be declared. Regulations will be passed and bitcoin trading will be heavily constrained. That’s when people will move onto a another, more useful blockchain technology.
Zack Allen, Manager of Threat Operations, ZeroFOX
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Why I Know What I’m Talking About:
Zack Allen is the manager of threat operations for ZeroFOX in Baltimore, MD. His interests include security research, devops and threat intelligence. He was previously a researcher working for Fastly solving internet scale network security problems. He is a member of SPARSA, his alma mater’s premier security club, the honeynet project and is a contributor to the OWASP CRS project. In his offtime he is an avid climber, runner and tinkers with old PCs at home.
Here is the Inside Scoop:
With bitcoin eclipsing $16,000 today, the ordinary person can clearly see the value of cryptocurrency. The problem with this industry is that much like the ordinary person, cryptocurrency exchanges and companies are very new to this space and are figuring it out as much as we are. As the market accelerates at a ridiculous rate, its volatility also accelerates. New cryptocurrencies, new mining operations and new exchanges rear their heads to take market share, but they may not appreciate the risk they carry for their customers.
The lack of consumer protection laws and the rapid creation of companies to handle transactions put the end user at extreme risk. These new companies would have to prioritize operational requirements or usability over security to compete against other companies who are trying to capitalize on the market. Once security is deprioritized, small security decisions can have extreme risks associated with them.
As the crypto market figures out how to deal with cybersecurity issues like with the recent NiceHash hack, it’s important as a consumer to make the right decisions when selecting escrow accounts or exchange websites. Brand prowess or chic-ness of the website should not be anywhere close to the top of any end user’s priority. Do they have a history of breaches or security incidents? Are they part of bug bounty programs? Do they have an email address to disclose vulnerabilities? Is there a security team there?
It will be interesting to see how the crypto market evolves over the next five years given the cybersecurity concerns attached to this currency.
Kevin Kleinman, Founder of Watchhimtrade.com
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Why I Know What I’m Talking About:
I started trading markets in the Summer of 2008 after graduating high school. I quickly knew that I was in the right place and that no formal education would teach me what I was learning every day at the height of the financial crisis. Today, I help traders and investors navigate markets as the founder of Watchhimtrade.com, an educational live trading platform. Having tracked bitcoin since it’s original explosion higher in 2013, I have seen first-hand the uptick in demand for bitcoin related insights and analysis. Our members trade bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin, bitcoin related stocks, and many other asset classes. One thing I’ve learned is that where you buy is a lot more important than what you buy.
Here is the Inside Scoop:
Here is one piece of advice: once your Facebook friend that you haven’t talked to since high school stops posting statuses about Bitcoin, that is when it will be a better time to buy.
In November 2013 Bitcoin went from $200 to $1000, which isn’t much different on a percentage basis to the move of the last 2 months. What happened next can provide insight into what might happen over the next 5 years: Bitcoin held its value, but didn’t rise in value for about 3 years. My prediction is bitcoin fluctuates wildly between $5,000-$25,000 for the next 5 years, in a way that is similar to what followed after 2013’s rise. If you study price increases like the one bitcoin has experienced, it would be unprecedented for the gains to continue in the near-term.
Functionally, it is likely we see more merchants start to accept bitcoin as payments. When something is worth more than a dollar, there becomes incentive to start accepting that as payment for goods. We will see this start to play out. However, it remains to be seen how effective this will be for merchants after figuring transaction costs and exchange benefits. What will the merchant who sells his goods for bitcoin think of his sale, if 1 day later the price of bitcoin goes down by $1000?
There is a tremendous risk and reward balance that businesses will have to debate when it comes to bitcoin. The decisions these business make, and the technological advances they pursue, will dictate where the currency is in value and what it is being used for over the next 5 years.
Jørn Lyseggen, Founder and CEO of Meltwater
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Why I Know What I’m Talking About:
Jorn Lyseggen, the founder of MeltWater, a global leader in data analytics, recently wrote a book called Outside Insight Navigating a World Drowning in Data that I found incredibly useful for analyzing Bitcoin data. The premise of the book focuses on why external data is the future of corporate decision making, and how leaders can capitalize on the right data insights to make market predictions that guide better, more informed decision making.
Here is the Inside Scoop:
I’ve found the concepts of Outside Insight to be helpful when examining trends in Bitcoin. Using MeltWater’s Outside Insight data that tracks the amount of media coverage and social media coverage Bitcoin receives on a day to day basis, I noticed trends such as that Bitcoin’s price in many cases has continued to rise whenever there was a spike in the quantity of news coverage on it. Remarkably, this was the case even when the news coverage was negative. Using external data points such as news coverage quantity to observe trends such as this can be very beneficial to understanding trends and how it can inform decision making.
Charlie Minard, CPA; CryptoCPAs
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Why I Know What I’m Talking About:
I am co-founder at CryptoCPAs which is a tax accounting firm that focuses on cryptocurrency trading. We are the industry leader in accounting for any gains/losses in Bitcoin from a tax perspective.
Here is the Inside Scoop:
If lightening network works as planned and scales Bitcoin core accordingly, Bitcoin will likely become the dominant coin and will gain mass adoption. If scaling continues to be an issue, then it is possible for on-chain scaling to become the preferred option and Bitcoin Cash may overtake Bitcoin.
Source: Cryptocurrency